Explore our comprehensive 24-month analysis of over 40,000 companies using publicly accessible data

What is the Hatcher+ Score?

Think of it like a credit rating for startups—one number (350–900) that sums up a company’s potential (650 is roughly average). Underneath that single figure, multiple component scores highlight different growth factors:

• Return Potential: Valuation multiple projections
• Exit Potential: Likelihood of acquisition or IPO
• Funding Potential: Probability of further investment
• Venture Trend: Momentum in the startup’s sector
• Impact Readiness: Appeal for socially conscious investors
• CEO Scores: Fundraising and exit experience based on past performance
• Geographic Potential: How well location aligns with VC trends

It’s not just about “how hot” a startup is—but why it’s poised for success. For more details, check out our blog post about the Hatcher Score.

How We Built It

Nine Years in the Making

At Hatcher+, our journey began in 2016 with a vision: apply data science rigor to a traditionally intuition-driven industry. We gathered extensive datasets from licensed and publicly available sources — such as Crunchbase — and began training and refining AI models to better predict startup outcomes.

Over nearly a decade, we built more than 75 advanced AI models and trained them on 900,000+ historical investment events. The result is a comprehensive analytics engine that weighs everything from market momentum to founder experience.

Spotting Potential Early

We know a great idea can come from anywhere, so we designed our system to be impartial, focusing on data patterns rather than subjective biases. Each score is algorithmically calculated to highlight signals tied to real-world performance outcomes — whether that’s venture interest, funding rounds, acquisitions, or public listings.

The 24-Month Validation Study: Putting Our AI to the Test

While back-testing (testing a model against historical data) is a crucial step for refining predictive models, it can sometimes lead to data leakage, where information about future events inadvertently influences model training. To eliminate this possibility and validate our scoring system in a real-time environment, we launched a large-scale observational study in late 2022. Below is a detailed look at how we conducted this study, why it matters, and what we discovered.

Study Setup and Methodology

1. Snapshot in November 2022
   Using only the data available as of November 2022 (primarily from Crunchbase and other public datasets), we scored 40,000 companies with our latest Hatcher+ models. Each startup received an Overall Hatcher Score, plus the component and informational scores that highlight factors like exit likelihood, funding potential, and CEO experience.
2. Filtering and Grouping
   
   • We ensured no forward-looking data (post-November 2022) was included in the scoring process, which helped us avoid the risk of “knowing the future.”
   • After scoring, we divided these companies into groups, or “deciles.” The top decile included those with the highest 10% of scores, the lowest decile the bottom 10%, and so forth.
3. Observation Period
   
   • December 2022 to mid-2024: Over the next 18–24 months, we tracked real-world outcomes for these companies — everything from additional funding rounds to acquisitions and IPOs.
   • By mid-2024, we could compare actual results to the predictions our AI made at the end of 2022, offering a clear, unbiased look at the model’s accuracy.
4. Key Metrics Monitored
   
   • Follow-on Funding: Did the company raise subsequent rounds of capital?
   • Exit Events: Was the company acquired or did it go public (IPO)?
   • Company Status: Was the business still active or had it ceased operations?

Key Findings

When the 24-month period concluded, we analyzed how the top-decile companies fared relative to the middle or bottom-decile groups. Here’s what we found:

• Overall Score
  
  • Companies in the top 10% were 70% more likely to secure follow-on events (funding or exits) compared to the bottom 10%.
  • They were also 36% more likely to secure follow-on events than the remaining 90%.
• Funding Potential
  
  • Top-decile companies showed an 86% increase in likelihood of obtaining new funding compared to the lowest decile.
  • Versus the remaining 90%, these top scorers were 48% more likely to raise additional capital.
• Exit Potential
  
  • The top-decile companies had a 159% higher chance of achieving an exit (mainly acquisitions) relative to the bottom decile.
  • Compared to the rest of the 90%, they still posted a 58% higher likelihood of successful exits.

Why This Matters

1. Real-World Verification
   By focusing strictly on data available at the time of scoring, we safeguarded the study against any accidental knowledge of future events (data leakage). This makes the outcomes far more credible and demonstrates the practical, forward-looking power of our AI system.
2. Decile-Based Insights
   Grouping startups by score deciles offers a straightforward, comparative lens. Investors and founders can see, at a glance, how strong scoring correlates with tangible outcomes like funding success or acquisition interest.
3. Holistic Assessment
   While many AI tools focus on a single outcome (e.g., only fundraising success), the Hatcher+ Score goes broader—evaluating exit potential, CEO capabilities, and thematic (industry) trends, as well as social impact readiness. In practice, startups with higher composite scores tended to see positive movement on multiple fronts.
4. Actionable Takeaways
   
   • For Investors: The study underscores how high-scoring startups frequently yield better results, making the Hatcher+ Score a powerful preliminary screen to direct deeper due diligence.
   • For Founders: A good Hatcher+ Score isn't just a vanity metric. It can validate your market position and value proposition, boosting your credibility in funding talks.

Real-World Application: The H2 Fund

In addition to the observational study, we also examined the correlations between the Hatcher Score and the same key metrics within the portfolio of the H2 Fund. The H2 Fund is a seed-stage vehicle that co-writes checks between $25,000 and $100,000 USD alongside other investors for a wide range of startups. The fund and its investment criteria were set before the Hatcher Score was fully integrated. 

At the time, the Hatcher Score was supplementary rather than a rigid filter in our investment process – meaning that the H2 Fund invested in companies across all scores. Looking back at these investments shows a real world application of how accurate the predictions can be.

• 57% of H2’s investments (last 30 months) remain at their initial valuation, which is typical for very early-stage startups.
• High Score (900s): These startups show a valuation step-up averaging 1.54x.
• Moderate Scores (700s/800s): Step-ups range from 1.11x to 1.13x.
• Lower Scores (500s): Valuation dips to about 0.28x.

What does that mean for you? If you’re an investor, our scores can highlight which deals might merit deeper due diligence. If you’re a founder, a higher Hatcher Score provides instant credibility during your fundraising efforts.

Why It Matters

For Investors

1. Smarter Funnel: Time is money in VC. The Hatcher Score helps you prioritize which pitches deserve a closer look, cutting through the noise.
2. Data-Backed Confidence: With 900K+ historical events trained into our AI models, you can trust that higher-scoring companies align with stronger forward-looking potential.
3. Trend Spotting: Need to know if a sector is on the rise or in decline? The Venture Trend Score zeroes in on momentum, a crucial piece of the puzzle.

For Founders

1. Stronger Pitch: A solid Hatcher Score can enhance your narrative. You’re not just telling investors you’re promising, you have an independently validated metric that backs it up.
2. Meaningful Benchmarks: Compare how you stack up against 40,000+ other companies. If your CEO Fundraising Score is lagging, you’ll know where you might need to build your story or credentials.
3. Future-Focused: Our system identifies areas for improvement, giving actionable insights on everything from industry positioning to impact readiness.

The Future of Predictive Analytics in Venture Capital

Data will never replace the human element of investing — sometimes the big idea you’re looking for can’t be captured by numbers alone. But by augmenting the traditional process, we vastly reduce guesswork. With continuous tracking and annual scoring updates:

• Deeper Longitudinal Data: Each year, more outcomes feed back into our AI models, sharpening predictions.
• Refined Algorithms: As new industries emerge or market dynamics shift (e.g., Web3, AI-driven biotech), our models evolve to stay ahead of the curve.
• More Inclusive Investing: A data-centric approach opens doors to regions and founders who might otherwise be overlooked by conventional networks.

Our mission is simple: make venture capital smarter, more transparent, and more accessible. The Hatcher Score stands at the forefront of this mission, combining the latest in machine learning with real, tangible insights that help both investors and founders navigate the complex VC landscape.

Conclusion

Venture Capital is known for its fast pace and inherent risk. But with the right data, you can stack the odds in your favor. By offering a clearer lens into a startup’s potential, the Hatcher Score provides investors with a streamlined way to find diamonds in the rough and founders with a credible metric to showcase their company’s promise.

Whether you’re just starting out or looking to expand your portfolio, consider leveraging the power of predictive analytics with Hatcher Score.

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